Irvine Homes

With muted demand, how has the Orange County inventory already reached a peak? The first factor is that demand has reached a cruising altitude, stabilized after slowly dropping since the end of March. The second factor, and more importantly, there are fewer homeowners opting to sell. Fewer homes coming on the market impacts the ability for homes to accumulate on the market and allow the inventory to grow faster. From January to July of this year there have been 17% fewer FOR SALE signs compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), a shocking…

Every recession is different. During the Great Recession unemployment skyrocketed and housing was a huge “house of cards” built on years of subprime loans, pick-a-payment plans, teaser rate adjustable mortgages, and fraudulent lending practices. It was not a shock that housing values sank. This “recession” will be entirely different. Thus far in 2022, the Orange County housing market has slowed from an Expected Market Time (the time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) of 19 days in early March to 65 days today, yet the slowing has stopped. In fact, the market time has…

The Orange County housing market has downshifted considerably compared to 2021. The tell-tale signs that the market has changed are all here. OPEN HOUSE directional arrows now adorn busy intersections, and it is common to see the same OPEN HOUSE for multiple weekends in a row. The number of price reductions is rapidly growing, indicating buyers’ sensitivity to pricing. Sales prices are no longer stretching tens of thousands of dollars above asking prices. The heydays of 2020, 2021, and the first few months of this year are gone. The rapidly appreciating, insanely hot housing market has transformed…

Housing data illustrates that there is not a housing crash on the horizon. According to researchers at Penn State University, only 8% of the things that people worry about come true. From finances to job security to relationships to health, worry is everywhere. The collective mind seems to almost always jump to the worst-case scenario. It seems as if nobody is immune to worry. With strong inflation numbers, Wall Street volatility, and soaring interest rates, panic and worry is in the air. So many are jumping to the immediate conclusion that as housing slows, values will eventually…

Yes, supply is rising. Demand is muted. The housing market is slowing. The number of offers received is dropping. The number of offers over the asking price is falling. Sales are down. The number of price reductions has been steadily climbing. The pace of housing, the Expected Market Time (the amount of time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) has slipped from an Insane Seller’s Market (less than 40 days) in March when it was at 19 days to a Hot Seller’s Market (between 40 and 60 days) today at 56 days. It is…

The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in first-quarter 2022 ticked down to 24 percent from 25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 and was down from 27 percent in the first quarter of 2021, according to C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The first-quarter 2022 figure is less than half of the affordability index peak of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012. C.A.R.’s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California. C.A.R. also…

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 377,790 in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. May’s sales pace was down 9.8 percent on a monthly basis from 419,040 in April and down 15.2 percent from a year ago, when…

The active listing inventory added 180 homes in the past couple of weeks, up 12%, and now sits at 1,732 homes, still its lowest level for this time of year since tracking began in 2004. Yet, this is the first year since 2019 that the inventory is methodically rising. With a major spike in mortgage rates, demand has cooled. Homes that are priced well and in good condition will fly off the market. Homes that are overpriced, in poor condition, or have an inferior location will accumulate on the market allowing the active inventory to continue to…

Trends are developing which demonstrate that the pandemic induced, insane housing run is cooling. Incredible, relaxing, memory-filled vacations come to an end. Ski seasons come to an end.  The last pages of a good book come to an end. Binge watching a favorite television show comes to an end. Weekends come to an end. Seemingly nothing lasts forever. For the Orange County housing market, the incredible, insanely Hot Seller’s Market will eventually evolve into something completely different, and that is beginning to take place right now. Now that the first quarter of 2022 is in the rearview…

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 426,970 in March, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. March’s sales pace ticked up 0.5 percent on a monthly basis from 424,640 in February and was down 4.4 percent from a year ago, when 446,410 homes…