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With muted demand, how has the Orange County inventory already reached a peak? The first factor is that demand has reached a cruising altitude, stabilized after slowly dropping since the end of March. The second factor, and more importantly, there are fewer homeowners opting to sell. Fewer homes coming on the market impacts the ability for homes to accumulate on the market and allow the inventory to grow faster. From January to July of this year there have been 17% fewer FOR SALE signs compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), a shocking…

Every recession is different. During the Great Recession unemployment skyrocketed and housing was a huge “house of cards” built on years of subprime loans, pick-a-payment plans, teaser rate adjustable mortgages, and fraudulent lending practices. It was not a shock that housing values sank. This “recession” will be entirely different. Thus far in 2022, the Orange County housing market has slowed from an Expected Market Time (the time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) of 19 days in early March to 65 days today, yet the slowing has stopped. In fact, the market time has…

The Orange County housing market has downshifted considerably compared to 2021. The tell-tale signs that the market has changed are all here. OPEN HOUSE directional arrows now adorn busy intersections, and it is common to see the same OPEN HOUSE for multiple weekends in a row. The number of price reductions is rapidly growing, indicating buyers’ sensitivity to pricing. Sales prices are no longer stretching tens of thousands of dollars above asking prices. The heydays of 2020, 2021, and the first few months of this year are gone. The rapidly appreciating, insanely hot housing market has transformed…

Housing data illustrates that there is not a housing crash on the horizon. According to researchers at Penn State University, only 8% of the things that people worry about come true. From finances to job security to relationships to health, worry is everywhere. The collective mind seems to almost always jump to the worst-case scenario. It seems as if nobody is immune to worry. With strong inflation numbers, Wall Street volatility, and soaring interest rates, panic and worry is in the air. So many are jumping to the immediate conclusion that as housing slows, values will eventually…

Yes, supply is rising. Demand is muted. The housing market is slowing. The number of offers received is dropping. The number of offers over the asking price is falling. Sales are down. The number of price reductions has been steadily climbing. The pace of housing, the Expected Market Time (the amount of time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) has slipped from an Insane Seller’s Market (less than 40 days) in March when it was at 19 days to a Hot Seller’s Market (between 40 and 60 days) today at 56 days. It is…