Hunkering Down
On March 19, 2020, the Governor of California issued a “stay at home” order. Offices, small businesses, shop owners, and schools all closed their doors and headed home. Only essential workers, such as health care, emergency services, and food services, were able to leave their houses and head to work. Once congested freeways were empty. Outings were limited to a once per week trip to the local grocery store. As a result of the pandemic and the need to hunker down, in Orange County there were 49% fewer new FOR-SALES in April 2020 compared to the 3-year…
Match Severely Weakened Demand Due To The Sharp Rise In Mortgage Rates
With muted demand, how has the Orange County inventory already reached a peak? The first factor is that demand has reached a cruising altitude, stabilized after slowly dropping since the end of March. The second factor, and more importantly, there are fewer homeowners opting to sell. Fewer homes coming on the market impacts the ability for homes to accumulate on the market and allow the inventory to grow faster. From January to July of this year there have been 17% fewer FOR SALE signs compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), a shocking…
Low Supply VS Low Demand
Every recession is different. During the Great Recession unemployment skyrocketed and housing was a huge “house of cards” built on years of subprime loans, pick-a-payment plans, teaser rate adjustable mortgages, and fraudulent lending practices. It was not a shock that housing values sank. This “recession” will be entirely different. Thus far in 2022, the Orange County housing market has slowed from an Expected Market Time (the time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) of 19 days in early March to 65 days today, yet the slowing has stopped. In fact, the market time has…
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